Recording details for the Markov transition matrix

Record the probabilities to transition from one state to another and the weight assigned to each state to determine the health of the equipment. After the probability matrix is complete, click Generate Curve Points, which starts the process that creates new curve points automatically based on Markov chains.

A Markov chain is a stochastic model used to determine the likelihood that the equipment will be in a certain state or health after it has reached a certain state or health in a previous iteration of the chain. The changes to the state of the equipment are called transitions and the probabilities that the equipment moves from one state to another are called transition probabilities. The initial state of the equipment is assumed to be perfect health.

You can add zones to differentiate the deterioration of equipment for periods of time. For example, equipment may have one decay curve for five years but a different decay curve for the next five years.

To select the probabilities of transitioning to different states you must first select the Markov Chains check box on the Decay Curves screen and specify the Number of States.

Select Equipment > Equipment Rankings > Decay Curves.
Select the decay curve for which to define details for the Markov transition matrix, and then click the Markov Transition Matrix tab.
Specify the probabilities of transitioning from each state to another state as a number ranging from 0 to 1.
Click Add New Zone to create a new zone for the transition matrix.
A new set of transition probability records are created for the next higher zone for the header decay curve. You can have a maximum of 99 zones.
Click Remove Highest Zone to remove the set of transition probabilities associated with the highest zone.
Click Generate Curve Points to generate the curve points for the transition matrix.
Click Generate Matrix and Curve Points to generate the new transition matrix and new curve points. The job is processed in the background because it may take time depending on how many historical records are included.

Note: You cannot automatically generate the matrix for percentage-based decay curves. For these decay curve types, the matrix must be entered manually.